Now that pesky death cross has crossed very late on the 13th/open UTC 14th, I thought lets have a discussion about the 200 weekly moving average on BTC. For me, this MA is probably the most consistent in BTC's history and dates back on the chart to the 29th Dec 2011, thus over 10 years of data now, that's a long time!. Let's take a look at the chart:

The 200WMA is forever moving up which is a good thing. The reason it is always moving up is because Bitcoin has never gone below it except on three occasions, and on each occasion just a mere handful of days. Those occasions at their lowest points are 25th August 2015 7.7% lower, a month later 21st September 3.3% lower, and finally 16th March 2020 (just after the corona crash) 8.5% lower. So, one can conclude that the 200WMA indeed has acted as very strong support throughout Bitcoin's history. Indeed I joked with a friend "In the 200WMA I believe!" I must have that printed on a T-shirt one day lol.

The 200WMA hit exactly $19,000 yesterday and to me if a grisly bear market was to ensue, this is the level I would eye as to buy in heavily. For example if it hit 19K today I'd buy a large chunk, but it's not going to do that today and as days, weeks, months go by the 200WMA indeed increases, so keep an eye on the latest price.

Why do people not talk about the 200WMA now? Simple, we are far away from it at $42,700 thus it's a 55.5% drop from today's spot price. It's purely behaviour of the investor and trader as it is not 'immediate' and it all sounds uber-bearish to even discuss. To discuss now makes one sound negative but in my opinion not so. Depending on how long you have been in crypto you may never have lived through a torturous bear market; I have and 2018 was a bitch and early 2019 where the 200WMA became an absolute saviour. December 2018 and February 2019 the price of BTC came very close within a couple of percent but it held, it acted as support and thus Bitcoins run once again moved north over the long-term. Phew! There were some very close calls and many touting Bitcoin going to zero and extreme FUD was abound also.

However, look where we are today has shown the power of this MA indeed for 10 years too. In my opinion, the 200WMA acts as a magnet too; sooner or later we will re-visit this line once again whether it be when it's 20K or a 100K in the future and I hope that it will once again hold as support, bar maybe a handful of days. To me it's the ultimate buy in point at literally any point in time, I think it has proven its power already as the grandfather of BTC MA's.

Finally, it is worthy of discussion and keep it on the back-burner for reference. I'm neither a bull nor a bear and I try to plan for wherever the market takes us. But always keep in mind too: "A model only works until it doesn't" but I will still get my T-shirt printed on this one ! Happy trading all.

Please feel free to comment below and if you want to say hello, BBS.market/GGGXX DM & AMA.

CryptoGlyn.