A key principle exists when it comes to BTC Death Crosses:
"More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to the retrace depth post-Death Cross"
Here is a quick summary of historical retraces prior to and after Bitcoin Death Cross
Based on this principle, current BTC post-Death Cross retrace should approximately match the pre-Death Cross retrace
Pre-Death Cross retrace was -43%
Post-Death Cross retrace of -43% would see $BTC reach ~$22,700
A -43% post Death Cross retrace to ~$22,700 would mean #BTC would reach the 200 SMA
The 200 SMA has historically been a great indicator for Bear Market bottoms
Now it represents the $BTC price point of ~$22,300
On the BTC Monthly timeframe, this 200 SMA finds itself in between two major Monthly supports:
~$28,900 & ~$20,000
And so if $BTC performs a -43% post-Death Cross retracement...
Price will land on the 200 SMA (i.e. ~$22,300)
But what if BTC performs a deeper post-Death Cross retracement than -43%?
In the past, these post-DC retraces were -55%, -65%- and -71%
A -55% post-DC retrace would see $BTC reach ~17,200
And ~$17,200 is a key Monthly level
A -65% post-Death Cross retrace would see #BTC reach ~13,600
And ~$13,600 is a key $BTC Monthly level
A -71% post-Death Cross retrace would see #BTC reach ~10,900
And ~$10,900 is a key $BTC Monthly level
It's compelling to see that if any of the historical BTC post-Death Cross retracements were to repeat...
$BTC would reach a key Monthly level in each of those cases
The only Monthly support that wouldn't get tagged is the ~$20,000 level
And that's because... The #BTC $20,000 Monthly support is being front-run by the 200 SMA, a key indicator for marking out Bear Market bottoms
But when $BTC marks out these Bear Market bottoms at the 200-MA, BTC tends to produce downside wicks
Could a downside wick tag the ~$20,000 Monthly level?
The answer is that a BTC wick is possible
Downside wicks below the MA tend to be -14% to -28% deep
If history were to repeat with similar figures, then $BTC could even drop to as low as the $15500-$19000 region
Interestingly, a -14% wick below the 200MA would see BTC tag the ~$19000 region which is confluent with the Monthly level of ~$19700
And a -28% wick below the 200MA would see $BTC tag the ~$15500 region which is approx. confluent with the Monthly level of ~$17200
The conclusions are as follows:
• Historical #BTC post-Death Cross retraces line up with key Monthly levels
• Downside wicking below the $BTC 200MA also align with key Monthly levels
Lots of confluence for the ~$17000-$22000 region
Let's look at another historical tendency related to BTC Death Crosses
Notice how pre- & post-Death Cross retraces are similar BUT differ by being shallower/deeper by -2% to -5%
2013: -73% & -70% (3% difference)
2017: -70% & -65% (5% diff)
2019: -53% & -55% (2% diff)
BTC History suggests an error of up to 5% on either side of the post-Death Cross retrace
So since $BTC retraced -43% prior to the Death Cross in this cycle...
This means #Bitcoin could theoretically retrace as little as -38% & as much -48%
If that were to be the case...
Then a -38% retrace would see #BTC bottom at ~$24K, front-running the 200MA
A -48% retrace would see $BTC bottom at ~$20K Monthly support
More confluence with key Monthly levels, with the exception of a potential scenario of a front-running by the 200MA
Let's consider one final historical tendency relating to BTC Death Crosses
Overall, there may be a general declining tendency in both $BTC pre- and post-Death Cross retracements
Pre-Death Cross retraces:73%>70%>53%>63%>56%>43%
Post-Death Cross retraces:70%>65%>55%
BTC post-Death Cross retraces initially declined by 5% from -70% to -65%
Then fell by 10% from 65% to 55%
Could $BTC perform a post-Death Cross retrace that will decline by 15% from 55% to 40% now?
And what if history repeats with a 5% or 10% change in decline?
A 15% difference in decline compared to the 2019 post-Death Cross retrace of -55% would see #BTC drop by -40% to reach ~$23500
A 10% difference compared to 2019 would see $BTC drop by -45% to reach ~$21700
And a 5% difference would see price drop by -50% to reach ~$19700
It's difficult to say how much this current BTC post-Death Cross retrace will decline compared to previous post-DC retraces...
But based on what has happened in the past, we have arrived at a general approximate range of ~$19700-$23500 for Bitcoin
Overall however, having analysed the many historical price tendencies relating to the BTC Death Cross...
Tremendous confluence points to the ~$19700-$23500 region, with scope to go as low as the ~$15500 level due to downside wicking below the 200MA
This type of extensive analysis is something I tend to share
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