1) floor model failed, I will not use it again.

2) S2F model is at the same critical point at the sd band as when I wrote the S2F article in March 2019. IMO S2F is still useful, in fact the model is most useful in critical situations. I will watch if S2F stays within 1sd.

Plan B, Twitter, 2nd January 2022.

Plan B is a much followed crypto influencer and his Stock to Flow (S2F) is indeed used as a guide by many. We would all like to believe in this model in the crypto-space as for investment always indeed points north and amazing profits abound. However: “A model only works until it doesn’t” and even Plan B has admitted that by his 2 points above; his floor model has been rejected by missing the targets of Nov 98K and 135K for BTC by 2021 years end and his S2F is under constant review. As long as it “stays within 1sd” (1 standard deviation) then he considers S2F to remain valid.

Right now that sd is -0.59 as of 3 days ago. Just as a guesstimation would $25K be higher than 1sD? However, even outside 1sd does it become invalid as if you look left 4 times between 2013 and 2017 above the white 0sd line it has indeed exceeded 1sd and on occasion greatly so. 2 times below 0sd in 2011 and 2012 again past 1sd but only slightly so on the downside readings. Are they just considered clusters for modelling purposes and thus still valid I’m personally left unclear on?

Just as a note: Even by the S2F model, it could still take until June 13th 2024 to hit $100K as this is the first point of the white line (being 0sd) where this value is. (Just a thought).

So let’s keep an eye on this model and see if it plays out or is invalidated.

Do you like Plan B's S2F? Feel free to comment, any thoughts on this?

Cheers, CryptoGlyn. BBS.market/GGGXX DM & AMA.