$BTC weekly update (Published: 08/08/22; Latest update: 12/08/22)

GM BanterFam,

So, yesterday's post was indeed justified.
I however left my trade unattended for a little longer than anticipated, was a tad bit too greedy with my TP and found myself suffering minor losses in the pump.

I did however catch the long on the retest. 

Reinforcement of core lessons and the importance of adhering to rules: 
• Max lvg. requires max attention
• Standardise your trades / Don't compound your risks

And of course: Trust your TA
#Schoolfees

08/08/22

In an attempt to provide you all with one post to guide you for the week I took to the monthly chart and identified the possible milestones to cross on the potential stampede that is hopefully forthcoming.

Daily chart takeaways:

Bullish Scenario

BTC is yet to print a higher high, broke through a major resistance yesterday, retested and is now being hindered by a second diagonal. 

If we can indeed achieve the close of the daily candle above this white oppressor and confirm this rampage I see a breakthrough of this resistance being possibly impeded by a slew of historical levels, before that coveted 30K region.

July 2022 high: $24,695
May 2022 low: $26,536
January 2021 low: $27,923
December 2020 high: $28,921.5

Bearish Case

With the current geopolitical environment and macroeconomic turmoil that it promotes one must always be wary of the down side and have a clearly defined null hypothesis for your bullish thesis.

H0: There is no break out from this white resistance

Then, I will look out for support potentially being caught [tomorrow] on the:
• green momentum line (@ ~ $23,231)
• the orange trend line (@ ~ $22,939.5)

Losing those two regions I would possibly short all the way down to the lower counterpart of this white resistance (@ ~ $19,792)

On ByBit the funding rate is currently negative meaning that short positions out number long positions

Every trade taken (short or long) will all be with advancing SLs.Choose the lvg. that you are most comfortable with.

09/08/22

The $BTC price bullish thesis failed to gather sufficient support with the daily candle close being under the white descending diagonal. 

The orders identified yesterday were filled with price ultimately bouncing off of the descending orange trend line.

I was stopped out with meagre profits, and the price continued to climb at the time of the above screenshot, but now the price is back between the orange and green support.

I do not currently have any active positions in play and I am waiting for some sort of confirmation on price direction.

Namely, a continued bounce off the orange line (@$22,863), or its collapse.

For those of you anxious about missing either move, a possible play will be to ensure that your ByBit settings are on hedge mode and place both short and long orders on the orange momentum line, of course with a stop loss on each.

I have never done this technique but it was something that I thought of as writing.
If you do indeed do this, make sure you can actively monitor the trade as you may be stopped out of both trades in these moments of high volatility / ambiguity (and potentially double your losses). 

If unable to actively monitor you may want to consider halving the size of your normal trading position, so as to ensure that you are only risking the same amount of capital.

#ExperimentalTrading
#TwoTailedDesign

10/08/22

As a proof of concept, I decided to try my equivocal trade set up, described yesterday.
Here's how it played out…

The line broke, both trades were opened, I watched the wick quickly descend and stop out  (~20%) the long trade. I didn't take profits on the short expecting it to plummet much further.

Watched it retrace from 30% profit to -1% as we returned to trend line, half expecting it to bounce off the trend line and descend further, contemplated topping up the short position but decided to market execute a long instead and leave both direction trades open. 

Once I became convinced that we were bouncing off the trend line and returning to climb up I closed my short (at about a 10% loss) .

I tracked the price up to about 90% profit and advanced the stop loss ultimately getting stopped out at about 50% profits (telling myself I'll reopen if we returned to trend line).

However, I canceled the buy order before I went to sleep missing the opportunity to catch the retest.

In the end, I came away slightly better than not taking a trade, but moving forward:
Waiting for the markets to resolve a clear direction, is the best option.

#School fees

The US' CPI results came in better than forecasted and the price of $BTC consequently surged and broke through the previous resistance.

Upon observing that the price action was again thwarted from progressing beyond the 0.786 fib level. I placed a string of short orders took profits at about 25% and expecting revisitation of previous highs.

My account is well funded and I have the luxury of time to monitor the trade should the price do anything contrary to expectations.

#TradingCommando

11:00 (UTC -4):

Stopped out again with about 25% profit
Sell Orders refreshed!

12:00 (UTC -4):

Stopped out again with about 25% profit
Sell Orders refreshed!

12:32 (UTC -4):

Stopped out again with about 25% profit
Sell Orders refreshed!

14:10 (UTC -4):

Since getting stopped out that last time, $BTC's price has not ventured above $24k.
On the above screenshot it would appear that the price has established the 0.618 as support.

In the spirit of "trusting my TA" I have placed a long on the white trend line (cf. green highlighted price) with a TP set to $24k (~96% @100x).

While the red highlighted boxes (above the yellowed price) are my current short orders.
The largest of which is just before the invalidation zone (July high), with my stop shortly thereafter. 

15:00 (UTC -4)

Shortly following the last update $BTC collapsed the white trend line.
I am trading without a stop loss, but its all good.

My TA is reliable, I placed an order just on that green momentum line and the price responded.

Currently at 20% profits, but will leave it a little to see how the market responds (stop loss currently at ~10% profits)

11/08/22

GM,

That was an epic run yesterday, I held my long until my TP at $24,200.

The bullish thesis is back in play, with the printing of this day's candle above the white resistance line.

As, I write this update, $BTC is struggling to conquer that July high.

What will vindicate the bulls is the realisation of that line as support.

These bull vs bear scrummages are quite enthralling.
I am trading other alt-coin pairs today, but one eye will always be on big daddy as a leading indicator.

This break through seems to be holding :)

The first domino is tipping…

12/08/22 

Yesterday, as expected we have been rejected at our attempts to penetrate the previous month's high.

If, you were looking at the 15 min chart you would have seen a double top above the July high, and it has been all down hill since then.

I previously referred to that red momentum line as the last stronghold for the bullish thesis.
Thus far $BTC's price has been reliably cradled by this line, apart from this morning's deviation.

The trend is currently oriented downwards and thus my most profitable scalp trades have been shorts.

|f I see a Support Resistance flip, I will then open a longterm short with a targeted TP aimed at the orange support.

Until that manifestation I am topping up every time we touch that red support.
I am on hedge mode and shorting each deviation of the green momentum line with advancing SLs and my TP at the red line.

Just sharing my insights / experiences

Deliberate and come to your own conclusions

Banter On, Banter Strong!
✌️