Truly a vampire asset…$BTC weekly update (Published: 22/08/22; Updated:24/08/22 )

GM Fam 👋

Investors are bleeding out, whilst we short it to smithereens. 

As per usual I have shown the macro and honed in to the smaller time frames. 
I do this so that you will have complete transparency on the tributaries of my inferences judge their worth and so that you can replicate them on to your own charts if you choose.

So far for the day I have made two short scalps that increased my portfolio 1.5% or so the off the charts rankings attest.

The trades have been shorts off of the lower orange resistance and a secondary order at the high off of the first/green deviation.

Neither trade reached TPs but were stopped out > 30% profits.
When scalping as I will prescribe for these highly volatile markets.
Preservation of gains is the name of the game.

Update: 11:55 (UTC -4)

Saw a short opportunity setting up, tried to alert you but there was a break out.
I hypothesised that it would get rejected by the higher / orange resistance.

Placed my first entry at the 0.236
A second entry at the trend line (0 fib level)

The order hit and retraced, I put my TP at the 0.618 and advanced my SL to the 0.236 and then came back to write this post.

Trade still open, my plan is to advance the SL as we descend past each fib. level.
SL advanced to 50%

So, my SL was triggered at ~50%, then it proceeded to retrace past the last position at ~25%.
I felt pretty smug with myself with the call to advance the SL to double what it would have been had I just left it.

Then, I returned to my computer and saw this chart:

The trade sailed past the 0.6184 and seems to be heading to the lower trend lines (on the lower magnification charts above you will observe that I have four candidates for support). 

Better off than if I didn't take any trade
#ProtectYourProfits

I am sitting on my hands and not going to attempt to catch the falling price, until there is a profound determiner of support / potential turnaround.

Slight deviation, but seems to have caught a support

Seems to be a reliable support level, now that its not merely two touches.
I feel confident enough to trust it and use the green line to be the origin of some longs.

TP'ed at the last candle open on the way down, with ~30% profit.
It might go higher given the low stoch RSI, but no problemo, we are scalping.
I have set another buy order for when it revisits the trend line.

It would appear that we are getting rejected off of an extension of a former resistance, if we fail to surpass this region when the Stoch RSI reaches oversold, I'll consider shorting from their to the green support where I'll long again.

My order was not filled, but the price is quickly being rejected

I have removed my buy orders given that the stoch RSI has only just started to crown.
Bracing for lower lows / descending past the former green support.

Triple top identified, + Stochastic > 100 = SHORT!
SL when we make a lower low, hopefully no RS flip on the orange…

18:57 (UTC -4)

—Stopped out ~15% profit

Update: 23/08/22  6:59 (UTC -4)

Glancing at the 15 min chart you will notice that the price has respected the confines of the triangle drawn yesterday, and is threatening to possibly break out. 

I have only just gotten in front of the computer, and had my morning coffee.
Haven't placed any orders for the day, think it sensible to wait for some clearer direction in the markets before initiating any trades.

Above is another perfect example of the importance of the two trend lines (green from the candle bodies & red from the wicks).

I woke up this morning to alleviate myself (circa 2:30), I did my business and then grabbed my phone to see what $BTC was doing.
The price was I think ~$21,006, I placed a purchase order for $21k exact (remembering my trend lines from yesterday), watched the price dip to $21,001.50 and then surge back up.
I left my order and went back to sleep only to find that 4 hours later that the price was ~$500 higher.

Takeaway: avoid round numbers…think I learned that lesson before.

Stoch RSI had just about bottomed, I decided to place a small long order.

Order was not filled and we seemed to have made a Resistance Support flip.

If the order is filled I'll put the TP at the last significant high.

If it pulls back I plan to stock up at the 200 ma and each of the lower supports, (green / red)

It would appear that we have failed to sustain the break out, no worries "pull back plan" deployed…

Price thus far seems to be staying clear of the 15 min 200 ma, the new candle has only just been spawned…hopefully it is the RS flip that we are hoping for.

Going to watch Ran's show will update again after

Facing some sell pressure, but making higher highs, not going to think about putting a SL until we reach 100 on the stochastic RSI.

Didn't quite make it to the oversold region yet, but looking at the order book the shorts really started to surge.

I made the judgement call to put a SL at one of the previous highs.

Stopped out in profits…

That appears to have been the ideal call given that we pulled back from there.
Thought about shorting, but didn't think it the most brilliant idea given the falling $DXY

Stoch RSI still riding high, but price seems to have found support on the 0.618 fibonacci (the sweet zone), So I decided to start laddering into my order from there…started small and each additional top up will be double the previous in order to drag down the entry significantly.

We indeed retraced and failed to hit the exact point on the trend line to fill my order.
$BTC has rebounded to above the 0.6184 (my first order), yet the st. RSI is still oriented downwards and yet to bottom…

I put a top up at the 0.786 fib level and will advance my SL at first with each wrung up on the fib retracement passed and then use historic levels.

Flying without TPs

Did about 3 - 4 scalps off the 0.618, before we finally returned to the trend line where my order was finally filled.

I am hungry, so I let myself get stopped out with meagre profits so that I can finally take lunch.

Its been a profitable morning,

Bon appetite 
😋

I will ladder into a long position in three entries:

1. The green trend line
2. The red trend line
3. The orange support

I decided to change my approach since the last retrace from the pump did not descend immediately to the support, possibly being held up by some unknown line.

My plan is to put the same amount for each entry and not look to seek to significantly drag down the entry as I would normally, given that I transferred out profits from Bybit and have less capital to cushion the liquidation zone / buy should price deviate lower than anticipated.

Update: 24/08/22 (UTC -4)

Gm again,
I canceled my orders from the previous day and went to sleep before any were filled.

New day another millionaire made 🤞

The first thing that I noticed this morning was that $BTC had not even flinched at those additional trend lines that were offered before it for yesterday's orders. They were erased.

The second thing was that apparent descending resistance. I opened an order just below the 200 ma, set a second for the return to trend line. 
Before I knew it the price had darted up to the dashed resistance.
I put a SL at 30% profit took a screen shot and took to writing this update.

I was stopped out, then price deviated, and is now getting rejected.
We'll see how the day progresses.

We indeed broke out…
Currently laddering into a short position, given that the stochastic RSI reads 100
As always started small leaving room for surprises, currently in meagre profits, but I am going to leave this one open with the hope that we don't bounce off of the former resistance (dashed line). 
I plan to put my SL once we cross the dashed
TP at the convergence of the orange and green supports.

We seem to have indeed bounced off of the dashed resistance line and registered a slight higher high.

The funding rate is not in my favour, but there's a little more than 3 hours to expiry:
No rush to close the trade and if we do achieve new highs…
I have my additional orders in waiting.

Could have bailed out with ~25% profits and take load up again…
But that wasn't the original plan.

Watched Ran's show.
Missed the opportunity to set my SL once we crossed the dashed line…
We crossed, bounced back a few times before clocking new highs and filling new orders.

I let myself get stopped out with ~12% profit.
New orders have been set shall we explore previous heights…

I am confident that we'll at least return to previous places given that the stochastic RSI seems to be heading for the overbought region despite an ascending momentum in price candles.

Not my finest two hours trading, those were.
The $BTC surge resulted in my buying and buying as the price kept on rising.
Happy to take the ~12% so that I could finally go to the bathroom.

Takeaways: await a clear peak before looking to short or do so starting from generous / achievable historical data.

Update: 26/08/22 7:51 (UTC -4)

Apologies for not getting a chance to update yesterday, I had a slight problem with ByBit / Banter's Off the Chart's ranking system and was waiting for support to get back to me.

I spent yesterday trading (none the less) guided by that purple trend line, longing each coincidence with price and shorting until the return to.

Most day's I close outstanding orders once I leave the computer.
However, last night I had too much conviction in the trading repertoire of the previous day's success.

Having been stopped out (~25% profit) on a trade that I had resolved to leave open over the night, I had left my lower orders open.

Before going to bed, I glanced at the ByBit app, not expecting my orders to have been filled and was surprised to see that there was indeed an open position.

At what was at first a ~7% loss and then I saw it move to ~5% loss.
I left it open and went to sleep convinced that it was a mere deviation.

Waking up again at ~2:00 to discover that it was now lingering in > 50% loss.
Nonchalantly market executed a double up on my order watched the loss decrease to ~5% and went back to sleep.

Currently, the loss is lingering around 50%…

I have a contingency plan should the trade go further south, but currently hoping that that dotted red trend line does not push the price further down by becoming resistance.

Should we break and establish a new candle confirming support.
I will consider again doubling up the position and move my SL to a recent low.

Please draw your own conclusions from this anecdote…potentially many.

The God Candle resulted and we rapidly TPed before I could double up my order.

Pigs get Slaughtered

The success of that last trade, resulted in my getting greedy.
High off of the intoxication of securing a landfall gain (or Ran's Birthday Scotch), having been forced to constantly buy the dip. I held nearly my entire portfolio in that last trade, and it resulted in a colossal pot being collected.

Now what?
Sit on your hands:
Sure…

I saw an opportunity, possibly it was the right opportunity…would not know because I got greedy and tried to load up the majority of my portfolio yet again. 

My err, was that I was haphazard in doing so and was negligent with my risk management. 

The result was my invalidation zone kept being brought higher and higher and resulted in my getting stopped out or liquidated.

Still up since the competition began, but I have lost the vast majority of those gains.
Only fair that I share my failings, if I am to gloat about the times that I have succeeded. 

What kills me is that my original invalidation zone was not breached…

Always prioritise your focus to your risks…
Greed is blinding.

Stay tuned for real time updates

Just sharing what I am doing,

Draw your own charts (always)

Banter On, Banter Strong!
✌️