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peterbllee
Dec 14, 2023

Blackrock is the world's largest fund manager. They understand how  changes in interest rates affect investments.

According to Blackrock, the pause and change in stance about interest rates is good for investors

https://watcher.guru/news/blackrock-fed-interest-rate-pause-a-green-light-for-investors

Until the FOMC Meeting in December 2023, the Feds have been maintaining  that interest rates will remain high and even said that there could even be more rate hikes

So the FOMC announcement that it expect 3 rate cuts of 0.25% each in 2024 and a further 4 rate cuts in 2025 caught a lot of people by surprise. 

Following that announcement, yields of treasuries and bonds fell. How is a fall in yields good for investors? 
The yield that a bond/treasury  gives is the rate of return provided by it. It is calculated by dividing the interest it pays by the price of the bond/treasury.

The coupon rate of interest paid by a bond is fixed at the time it was first issued. A bond that was issued at $1 and has a coupon rate of 3% will always pay 3 cents per year regardless of changes in market rates and the price of the bond. 

If the yield expected by holders of such a bond is 5% the price of the bond will fall to 60 cents so that someone who buys the bond at 60 cents will earn a return of 5% from the interest of 3 cents that he receives. 

If the yield markets expect falls to 4% the price of the bond he bought will rise to 75  cents, giving him a gain of 15 cents from the price appreciation. 

Yields and the price of bonds move inversely. When yields fall, price rises. Investors who already have interest in bonds benefit from the rise in price. 

Falling interest rates reduces the cost of capital for doing business. This can be the amount of interest paid for bank loans/overdrafts or the amounts required by other providers of capital. This reduces cost, increases profits and  value of shares of companies.

The real estate market is also highly affected by interest rates. Most purchases of real estate are partially financed by loans. 

Lower interest rates means lower interest cost. 

The amount that can be borrowed by purchasers is also dependent on interest rates as the amount required to service loans depends on interest rates. So lower rates increase the amount that can can borrowed to finance properties. 

In general it can be said that the pivot of interest rates from "higher for longer" to the expectation of falling interest rates is good for investors