The biggest budget battle looming during the next two years is what to do about the 2017 Trump tax cuts for individuals, which expire at the end of 2025. Trump and his fellow Republicans want to keep all the 2017 tax cuts in place, while perhaps cutting the business tax a bit from its current 21% level. Trump also wants to eliminate taxes on income derived from tips and get rid of income taxes on Social Security benefits. All told, that would add about $6 trillion to the national debt.

Harris, like President Joe Biden when he was the Democrats’ 2024 presidential candidate, wants to let the 2017 tax cuts expire for those earning more than $400,000 but keep them in place for everybody else. Democrats also want to eliminate the cap on state and local tax deductions, which was part of the 2017 tax law, while also boosting tax credits for working parents and lower-income households. Her plan would add about $5 trillion to the national debt.

Both candidates, in other words, are going the wrong direction, if stabilizing the debt is the priority. “The reality is, 10 trillion is hard enough,” Riedl told Yahoo Finance on the Capitol Gains podcast. “Harris and Trump are probably going to push it up to 15 or 16 trillion right away.”

Both candidates, meanwhile, say they’ll protect Social Security and Medicare, with no changes to benefits. That “makes it mathematically impossible to stabilize the debt,” Rield says.

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