Will expectations of Fed rate cuts strongly boost crypto prices?
In the 17 months of March 2022 to July 2023, the Feds raised rates 11 times taking their band from 0 - 0.25% to 5.25 - 5.5%
Yesterday was the 3rd FOMC meeting they have left the rate unchanged since the rate hikes ended.
In the first 2 meetings the Feds rates was left unchanged as a pause but kept the possibility of more rate hikes open. They also said that they expect rates to remain high and did not project any rate cuts in the near future.
Yesterday's FOMC also kept the Feds interest rate unchanged but significantly changed their projections of the future. Instead of saying that they expect rates to remain high for a long period (with the possibility of further rate hikes if necessitated by inflation) they projected 3 rate cuts of 0.25% each in 2024 and 4 rate cuts in 2025.
The futures market is pricing in rate cuts even more aggressively than the FOMC. The futures market has priced in rate cuts of 1.5% for 2024 or double what the Feds projected.
From the recent high of $45K, the price of BTC has retraced to around $40.1K. Immediately after the FOMC announcement markets including cryptos rallied.
Do you expect cryptos to continue rallying because of rate cuts?
Which do you think will have a greater impact on crypto prices: Fed rate cuts or expectations of the approval spot ETF for BTC and/or ETH? š¤


