LIVE CRYPTO TRADINGLIVE CRYPTO TRADING Near-term longs have the highest potential ROI, but obviously bear the highest risk.
Shorts offer the lowest near-term ROI, but also offer lower risk.
Should we manage to break upward out of the wedge, I'll probably long, but carefully. I'll be watching macro closely, keeping leverage small (1X in my case) and my š on both the DXY and Treasury Yields.
Should we break downward, I'm ready for the short as well, but I'll be expecting a short squeeze; and will hold some capital in reserve for a second entry. Any shorts here may go red for a period, but have the highest potential ROI as a swing trade over the medium term (given odds favor an eventual drop to ~12500 within the next few months).
Notice how BTC rejected from the November 2021 Resistance line and has since held below the 55 MA. [The brief pop above the 55 MA that occured was not bullish, given it rejected at September's confluence zone.]
My expectation is that they will continue to converge over the next weeks (possibly months). It's possible they will eventually meet as high as ~18,720, but odds favor somewhere closer to the ~17600 and 15500 levels. I'm watching the daily 200 & 55 MAs closely as part of my trading strategy.
Finally, because the DXY (and other currency indexes) will be one of the best indicators of when final market capitulation has occured, here's a link to an economic events calendar I've used in the past:3y LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING If you've ever doubted the power of trend lines and technical analysis, here's proof it works. More importantly, every one of you can do this kind of analysis yourselves.
Adding perspective, here's the one day view of my analysis from a week or two ago (with nothing changed from the original post):
As of the time of this post, you can see that BTC tagged and bounced from 18,800 for a quick 2% profit so far. Even if I need to TP here, that's 2% I didn't have before.
Not all of my entry and TP boxes are drawn in on this chart, but you can easily guess where I TP'd, re-entered, TP'd again, and so on.
So... Draw lines! They'll make you happy! :-)
Then again, everyone knows taters are as dumb as the dirt they grown in; so you'd be wise not to take their financial advice. :-)3y LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING I played both sides of this morning's dump.
As the EMAs tightened together, I expected a jump up, but feared a fall; so I did something I DO NOT advise new traders do. I entered equal long and short positions at the hesitancy price line.
This second long raised my earlier long entry just slightly, and now I'm currently underwater (just barely) on that position. I'll add to my position again if we go as far down as the next resistance.
In the meantime, I made a good bit on my short, which has paid for what I'm currently down on my long.
This type of strategy is VERY hard to get right, especially for someone as green as I am. It's hard to get right, and doesn't always work out, but this time I felt it was worth risking a small loss as insurance against a dump.
Sometimes, particularly in the short term, you have to follow your instincts. There was a good chance I could've lost some if there was a pump, but in this case, it seems (so far) a smart hedge. And if there had been a pump, the loss would have only been a small part of my overall gain.
Again, if you're new, please don't try this at home. It's a great way to lose $ if you're not quick enough.3y LIVE CRYPTO TRADING One of 3 things is likely to happen with BTC (surprise!):
- Trend sideways over the weekend within the current pennant ranges.
- Spring upward out of the current bear pennant toward the upper resistances.
- Drop Further out of the bottom range of the current bear pennant toward the lower supports.
Despite being oversold (albeit with a flat Stochastic RSI), with price trending down atm, and being in a bearish pennant, BTC to me feels like it's wanting to spring upward. If it does, there's between ~3% and ~8.5% potential upside. I would anticipate a jump to the ~20,800 resistance, after which we trend sideways until the Fed announcement.
If BTC drops the pennant, the next two major resistances offer between ~4.8% and 11.8% downside. If BTC hits the second low, this could signal the market pricing in an expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by as much as 100 basis points. Should Powell then only raise by 75 points, the morning of the announcement we could see a retrace, possibly as far up as the confluence zone (or the resistance just above), though not likely that far. If you're in this camp, be careful, we could very easily get another market manipulation dump this weekend on low volume.
Should we trend sideways, I see that as a bullish sign, telegraphing the market's expectation that the Fed will raise rates by only 75 basis points. If 75 is, in fact, the increase announced, we'll probably see that same market rebound, up to (possibly) the confluence zone (or the resistance just above).
Why am I hesitantly short-term bullish? The DXY has had one of its steepest climbs in recent history. I don't want to say it can't keep going up, but if it does, that will be disastrous for the US and global economies. With elections coming up, I also feel Powell will take as dovish a position as he thinks he can get away with.
TRADE WISELY. And remember, taters are for eating, not financial advice.3y LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING Over the past 32 hours, BTC has
smashed through the upper liquidity zone (~21,230 to ~21,810) to hit (and hold)
resistance at ~22,600, then corrected back into the lower liquidity
zone (~19670 to ~20,125) to hold support at ~19,600.
At the time of this post, price
is trending back toward the 19,600 support line. If
19,600 is pierced, I would be suprised to see it confirm below this soon, with probability in
favor of an upward bounce. [If price does confirm below this level, however, expect
another drop to ~18,675.] Watch the DXY, Total2, and equity futures to signal
direction. ETH is on its own path atm, and seems to have put a hand on the market driver's wheel, so you may want to monitor its direction as well for signals (what a
unique role reversal, eh?).
Barring an extreme sell-off,
I expect BTC to Bounce upward from a price between the 19,696 support and the congruence of the two diagonal
supports at ~19,770.
NOTE: this was drawn in Bybit, and prices seem to vary considerably by exchange, so I recommend you draw your own lines. For buying/selling aciton, you may also choose to draw the support lines at the lower tails of the lower liquidity zone. As always, if you look to a Tater for financial advice, you'll probably get all mashed.3y LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING LIVE CRYPTO TRADING 
