BTC Analysis going into Monday (with brief commentary on various alts).
![These are the levels to watch. [You might also choose to draw the upper diagonal resistance line going as far back as Nov. 2021.]](https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/408429a6-a3a0-4e0d-91f1-88f9ed7d0097.png)
These are the levels to watch. [You might also choose to draw the upper diagonal resistance line going as far back as Nov. 2021.] Near-term longs have the highest potential ROI, but obviously bear the highest risk.
Shorts offer the lowest near-term ROI, but also offer lower risk.
Should we manage to break upward out of the wedge, I'll probably long, but carefully. I'll be watching macro closely, keeping leverage small (1X in my case) and my 👀 on both the DXY and Treasury Yields.
Should we break downward, I'm ready for the short as well, but I'll be expecting a short squeeze; and will hold some capital in reserve for a second entry. Any shorts here may go red for a period, but have the highest potential ROI as a swing trade over the medium term (given odds favor an eventual drop to ~12500 within the next few months).
Here is the one day chart for BTC going back to the previous bear flag.Notice how BTC rejected from the November 2021 Resistance line and has since held below the 55 MA. [The brief pop above the 55 MA that occured was not bullish, given it rejected at September's confluence zone.]
Here is a close up of our current bear flag for BTC.
Watch for the 200 & 50 MAs to begin converging on both the daily and 4-hr charts. My expectation is that they will continue to converge over the next weeks (possibly months). It's possible they will eventually meet as high as ~18,720, but odds favor somewhere closer to the ~17600 and 15500 levels. I'm watching the daily 200 & 55 MAs closely as part of my trading strategy.
Finally, because the DXY (and other currency indexes) will be one of the best indicators of when final market capitulation has occured, here's a link to an economic events calendar I've used in the past:
