8.3 & $BTC (Published: 14/09/22; Updated: 18/09/22)

GM Banter!

Yet another morning this week, where I draft a weekly update on $BTC's price action.
The reason for my hesitance to publish was yesterday's Federal Reserve address.

With these posts I strive to continue to provide you with one post that will span and be reliable for the entire week.

Convinced that Powell's speech was going to continue to be hawkish and bring price down I traded as such. However, there is always a degree of uncertainty on the announcement days.
So, I decided this will be the perfect opportunity to continue my experimentation with playing both sides of the market (maintain both long and short positions). 

For those interested in reviewing my first attempt with this technique you are invited to review  the weekly update of last week.

Without further ado:

The Charts

The main take away from the daily chart is that $BTC broke out of the longstanding descending wedge, retraced, ultimately finding support on the former resistance or on the ATH of November 2020.

To debate which is trivial. 
The important thing is to acknowledge that we have made a higher low, and have not retraced all the way to the lows of last week. 

Two steps forward one step backward.

Zooming in: 15 min

If you would like to better understand why I have chosen to continue with the Bollinger Bands Indicator and how I used it to get the entry that would have given me over a 1000% ROI (I was stopped out with ~500%)  you are directed to yesterday's post where I explain the proper settings for the Bollinger Bands using insights from Statistics.

Despite the evident constricting of the Bollinger Bands  and the price consistently being bought up at the lower boundaries. I am less willing to predict a bullish breakout, and put my money behind team bovine, given that:
• we have been struggling to maintain price action above the 52 MA
• the 24 hour turnover has been consistently falling whilst the Funding Rate becomes more negative. (Throughout yesterday's dump the Funding Rate was a stable 0.01%).
• the daily stochastic RSI is crowning and about to exit the oversold territory.
• the absence of confluence of the Bollinger Band boundaries on higher timeframes / MAs

These signs lead me to deduce that the bulls are getting exhausted / disincentivised to continue buying at these prices.

How am I trading?

As I said in the preamble I have continued to experiment with the technique of playing both sides of the market evolving the method with the lessons learned from the prior week.

I decided before the news broke yesterday that I would be shorting the market.
Yet spooked by the pre-news volatility came to open a long position with an entry equal to that of my short position starting out in "liquidation purgatory".

Which means that I have been nursing a losing position all the whilst price dumped.
That is how I knew that I would have been at over 1000% profit had I not been so quick to advance my SL.
But discounting the losing position I have grown my portfolio by half

I have been scalping short and constantly topping up when I take profits on these short positions. Conservatively averaging down my entry whilst ensuring that I always have sufficient margin available to launch myself into liquidation purgatory if need be.

On the 15 min chart, I have been shorting every deviation above the midline / 52 MA approach to the light blue resistance when there is the coincidence with an oversold St. RSI (≥ 90) without TP and advancing the SL to ~10% profit ASAP and when the price ventures to the support of the yellow channel's floor I aggressively advance my SL.

Should price decide to jump out of the window again I have a conditional sell order equal to my long position value at the 24 hour low which will launch me into liquidation purgatory.

I am actively trading and adapting to price volatility…100x leverage ensures nonstop excitement.

Close to expiry of the Funding rate I usually adjust my position size slightly to ensure that I will always earn.

ByBit's funding rate recently flipped positive, 0.0097%…
24 hour turnover has not changed significantly
The Bulls are Back (if Funding Rate is not a lagging indicator, I suspect it is)…🤞
We should be more conservative with our short scalps.

Update: 14:33 

Price broke out of the ascending channel…
But I had my conditional sell order waiting, it reached about 200% profit but I managed to bring forward my SL from the 10% to the last candle close before price rebounded…
The bulls and bears are waging it out.

A new sell order has been placed and the victor will bring handsome rewards ;)

Update: 21:33 (UTC -4)

I managed to catch one last small 10% short scalp and then had dinner and bathed…
Missing out on the rally back up to the descending light blue resistance. 
As I write this $BTC is attempting to reenter the yellow channel, facing heavy resistance but given that the stochastic RSI seems to have levelled out and has begun to arch upward.
I suspect it is only a matter of time before price approaches that resistance again.

As I am going to sleep I will lower my conditional order as I will not be able to monitor and react to any rapid deviations down.

Update: 15/09/22 8:19 (UTC -4)

Immediately, you should notice that I have deleted that yellow ascending channel.
My reliance is now solely upon the light blue resistance, St. RSI, and the BB%.

At the time of writing:

The 24H Turnover is about average.
My rule of thumb for ByBit is
• < 4 billion USDT is low volume
• 4 - 5 billion USDT is usual volume
• > 5  billion USDT is high volume

The Funding Rate indicates that there are/were more short position holders in the market 
ByBit claims that the Funding Rate is backward looking, based on the market participants in the last 8 hours countdown. However, by my observations it seems to be more correlated with the current volume of longs and shorts in the markets. Shifting in tandem with the order book surges/volume candle lengths & colours.

Under these current conditions, I will continue to scalp short any deviation above the light blue suppressor. Only becoming bullish once we have flipped that resistance into support and surpass the 200 MA.

In hindsight, maybe I was too eager to advance my SL…
Had convinced myself that we would bounce from there (off that wedge roof)
Oh well, profit is profit and we should rebound eventually…
Failing that I have conditional saviours lower.

Price ventured lower, before rebounding, I was forced to accept a small loss.

The funding rate is once again positive 0.01%, as the bulls seem eager to gobble up sub 20k $BTC as if it were krill.

I'll also be hesitant to short from the light blue resistance immediately, and prefer to have proof of its sustained reliability before continuing to short.

Not to mention the possible double bottom, playing out.

Update: 17/09/22

$BTC has managed to flip a former resistance into support. Bullish 🐂

It has also achieved a recapturing of the 200MA (15min), a historically consistent bullish milestone 🐂

The Bulls are out in force this morning sustaining the relief rally.
Failing to break through the resistance and collapsing the guiding upward trend lines will ensure a blasphemous revist to 19k on the sabbath…

Fighting hard…will it be enough?

Bifurcate Trading Experiment  (update)

Yesterday saw my conditional sell order of last resort being triggered as a series of accepting small losses, put me in danger of getting close to being liquidated…the whole point of my experimenting with trading both directions was to in theory do lossless trading.
Loss aversion spawns irrationality.

You will usually regret accepting a loss in trend congruent scalping.

I sabotaged myself from the start in beginning from a point of "Liquidation purgatory".

Sustaining a losing position means that there will be a time where your margin will be deteriorated to the point in which you are unable to afford to launch yourself back into the safety of liquidation purgatory.

As I foolishly repeatedly took profit and cut small losses, while simultaneously attempting to average down my entry. My position grew as my profit/margin increased.
What I realise now is that unless you are able to capitalise on every leg downwards your initial loss will continue to accrue. And increasing your position leads to a faster deprecation of your margin.

All in all, despite having doubling  my portfolio since initiating the trade.
These profits will not be realised until I am able to exit both orders. In profit.

My options at the moment are:
To await for the market to make a mega directional move, so that I may close one position. Then continue to scalp in one direction / wait until the price enables the closure of the opposing directional trade.

Or fund my account more and average down/up each position's entry, until I am able to close each position.

Update: 18/09/22

$BTC tested yesterday's resistance but the bears seem to have the edge in this scrummage.
I forecast that we will see a continued approach to the light blue support to force a directional decision.

One of the hallmarks of Sundays are their low liquidity, which indeed stands true today.

Whatever today brings, come Monday morning when the volume is once again amped up, the masses may either continue the momentum or decide on a reversal.

Mondays are always tricky reads, especially in the post February 2022 "de-globalisation"

Price action appears to be contained by that descending brown trend line.
Until the bulls manage to convert that resistance into support that descending blue trend line may collapse sooner than anticipated.

Breakout?

Break down…

Just sharing what I am doing…
DYOR
Stay Tuned :)

Banter 0n, Banter Strong!
✌️