Don't be retail! $BTC weekly update (Published: 09/05/2022 Updated:09/09/2022)

GM BanterFam,

One post where I guide you through what I am seeing in the charts and update how I react to the different market turns every day multiple times a day.

For those new to my posts, I (scalp) trade $BTC 100x leverage daily.

Charts, I share so that you can learn what/how I do the things I do:
starting from the macro and zooming in.

Looking at the daily would confirm that we are still in a down trend and thus looking for shorts would be more advisable than the inverse.

Retail only see price and thus the funding rate is currently at 0.01%.
A positive funding rate means the majority of market participants are in long positions.
So by going short, not are you trading in congruence with the trend but you will be on the receiving end of the funding rate.

Now to the trading Charts:

So, working on this update I missed my chance to get potentially a 50% scalp trade.

But working off of the thesis that we will continue to get rejected off of the 15 min 200 MA.
I have laddered into a short position and will continue to do so should we break past this resistance. 

My main top up areas will be historic 15 min candle highs, the November 2020 ATH, and lastly that red dotted trend line.

The Funding rate is in my favour and thus no rush to close the trade, until significant profits have been reached.

I will consider my options for placing a SL when the stochastic enters the oversold and prints a new candle.

Currently ~11% in profit

UPDATE: 11:07 (UTC -4)

Not long after posting the update, the price rocketed through the 200 MA.
Filling two of my three additional orders, getting rejected off of $19,900 before my sell order could be processed.

I am not worried, my liquidation price is well away and I am still on the receiving end of the funding. 
The higher price goes the more of my margin is consumed and the higher the funding distribution will be. 

As more orders are filled my entry will be raised higher (averaged up).
The trend and I are still on good terms.

What goes up must come down…

Update: 12:44 (UTC -4)

I have been watching Netflix, the trade is now about 5% in profit, the Funding distribution has been received and the fees to open the trade have been paid off and the realised P&L is now positive. 

The Nov 2020 ATH appears to have become resistance. I am expecting price to retrace and bounce off the 200 MA. If a candle opens below the 200 MA and the Stochastic RSI enters the oversold region I will consider placing a SL at the 200 MA (~18% profit).

Failing that and we bounce off of the 200 MA and the stochastic enters the oversold I'll put my SL at 10%.

I prefer to leave room for the markets to surprise me rather than TP prematurely.

Current TP is at over 100%
Funding rate is 0.0056% with over 7 hours to expiry…

Update: 13:40 (UTC -4)

The order was stopped out with ~11% profit.
It probably is more profitable to look for other scalping opportunities than mine the trade for another 7 hours until expiry.

My short orders are still in place should the price return to the resistance zones in this next stochastic cycle.

Update: 14:48 (UTC -4)

I guess I should have waited for the market's surprise a little longer.
I did manage to get in another ~11% scalp trade by buying the bounce off of the Fibonacci retracement level 1. 

I do suspect there may be some bouncing around $19,700 before price makes a directional decision on where its heading.

Yes, I agree I might be more successful had I leave my trades open longer, but call it max leverage risk management.

In the fast paced world of scalping there's always another opportunity to lose.

I have made my targeted profit quota for the day.

And likely wont take any further trades, but if there's another opportunity, maybe.

09/06/2022 09:47 (UTC -4)

Preamble

Given yesterday's breaking into the supra-$20k region, I've decided to change my out look on the markets and not only look at one sided trades. Even though, I was eventually right trading the trend, I missed quite a few scalping opportunities trading along with retail.

Additionally, I am going to be more risk tolerant today as both trades today were stopped out with minimal profits and despite achieving my daily profit goals, the price continued on to hit the TP: greater than 100%.

I started working on this post just before 8:00 and have had to adapt and react to price action going counter to my original expectations.

Refusing to accept a loss I think this is a perfect teaching moment on how to best trade cross margin price volatility without stop losses.

This morning's charts

The first thing I did this morning, was to add a "Mid Range" demarcation to the identified range that captured the last week of price action.

The first thing that stood out was that the majority of price action was beneath this midline.
At first glance, the midline appears to be a more reliable resistance than the Nov 2020 high (~$19,900).

The second thing that I did was to activate the Bollinger Bands indicator.

Looking to catch a long up to the midline I used the lower BB% as my first entry and the 200MA for my second entry point and the lower liquidity zone as further Top up zones.

When the BB% contract that is a reliable sign that a breakout directional move is imminent, exampled by the constriction that occurred prior to last night's surge past the midline.

I left the computer to go to the bathroom, and came back to discover that all orders were filled.

I zoomed out, and searched for another support level.
I decided on one which it would be best to double my position, should price venture that low.

The price was not allowed to reach that low and rebounded to have me ~30% profit before getting rejected from surpassing the NOV 2020 high.

Price returned to entry without me advancing my stop given that I was writing this update.
I put another top up at the previous entry and will sustain this position until we reach the over sold region of the stochastic RSI and there is a clear sign of a turn around, or we penetrate the midline and TP.

Update: 13:50  (UTC -4)

Sometime after posting the last post. I drew a trend line of all the lower wicks, to verify that we were still in an up trend on the 15 min 
Then at ~13:00 price jumped off a cliff.

We began to inch closer to the liquidation zone, I got deja vu…to  about two weeks ago, where I was caught in the same position and was forced to accept a huge loss.

That calamity erased all the gains made in the "Off the Charts Competition" that witnessed me slide from 28th place to 800 something.

I began to worry…
Do I commit the same mistake? 

⚖️ My Options :

🤔…Am I fated to constantly buy the dip until I run out of dry powder, concede my losses and bow out by mercy of a stop loss.
Only to curse not having more capital to buy further when price eventually rebounded and surpassed my TP.

🤔…Do I leave it and chance liquidation

Why would you short at this late stage?

From my experimentation with the Derivatives Defi (harvesting delta neutral profits by sustaining opposing positions). I observed that when you go long and short with the same position value you end up in liquidation purgatory.

I'll probably lose in fees, and I'll have to TP at some point to lower my position and immediately go long and short again to avoid losses. Still would be forced to speculate on the bottom.

It works in theory, only thought of it just now. 
Uncharted territory…

Will let you know how my experimentation process goes.

Only thing I am wary about is the constant deprecation of my margin by funding fees as the long position is far greater than the short.

Will keep you updated 😉

Update: 17:32 (UTC -4)

I have closed my short position set a buy order and a conditional sell order 
For I suspect a relief rally is due, Whether this is going to slingshot price to my TP?
I don't know?
But, thought it best not to miss out on a potential rocket up.

Both sell orders have been filled, but my buy order has not been filled. 
So I am back in liquidation purgatory. 

Should I find that we return to profit on the long and I find myself with a grossly negative short.
I will either average up my entry and use it for the next sure shorting opportunity. 

Or maintain it and collect the funding revenue.
Now that I have discovered how never to be liquidated.

Leaving my top up short and long orders in play as I suspect we might dip again 

So my sell order was filled and now my liquidation price is achievable for my short but not for my long.

The funding rate timer is close to expiry, but by skewing my order quantity to be greater for the short position the margin position is thus greater and upon expiry it will deduct a smaller quantity for the long position and earn a greater distribution for the short…
i.e., Derivatives Defi

No loss trading: I put a conditional order to even out the quantities should price threaten the short position's liquidity price over night.

Update: 09/07/22 9:06  (UTC -4)

Price seems to have found a brief resting spot.
Let's take a closer look…

On the logarithmic chart there seems to be a clear linear suppression of price.
I have identified my immediate expectation for price's next visit…

Seems like the bulls still have some vigour left in them and are willing to fight.
Yes technically, this is a RS flip on the trend line that I have put my trust into…

So, I glanced over at the order book (my rudimentary volume indicator) saw that the bulls may have some legs and actually dominate this scrummage.

Market executed a close of my short order (~20%) and put a conditional sell order to a higher entry.

So far my actions seem justified.

I reconsidered my plan to recapture the entirety o the sell order at $19k, given that the bears seemed to be defending strongly the $18,900 price level, and the blue Stochastic was at 100

Deciding that it may be more sensible to split my order into two.
The first at the previous short entry putting me back into liquidation purgatory and the next at $19k should price venture higher.

I have selected $19k because of its psychological importance, not historic data.
A reliable milestone that the bulls ought to claim and that the bears will surely try their hardest to defend.

Back in liquidation purgatory 😏

The Stochastic RSI has begun to keel over, my short is ~40% in profit.
Funding expiry is 2 hours away, I earned ~$2 by leaving it over night and the earnings made from the two shorts total ~ $125.
So, if price doesn't return to $19k and fill my order and I lose slightly more than I'll earn it is not going to hurt,

My current forecast for price action is to maybe bounce off of the trend line if mutually agreed upon by the market majority by the time the 15 min stochastic RSI bottoms out.

Collapse that and we'll venture into the highly likely destination pause, maybe rebound before plunging lower.

The funding rate has flipped negative…meaning there are now more short position holders than long. As the Bears pack their muskets and defend that $19K line

After observing that the funding rate had turned negative. I removed my $19k short top up…

Three hours later (lunch & movie + clean up), we have broken through the $19k psychological level advanced some $200 before turning around.
I contemplated topping up my short position, but given the increased funding rate and liquidation risk I thought against it.

By the constant rate of shorts entering the markets, I do not think it will be long again before the short is back in profit.

I guess $19k was more important to the bulls than the bears.

Good thing I didn't top up on that short…would have chanced liquidation…

The only thing is that now my Short position is in a greater loss than my Long position.
Shouldn't have been so eager to open a short position again in the future.

Everything indicated further down side was more likely…

Update: 09/08/2022

$BTC was just shy of breaking $19,450 yesterday evening.
I have identified a new trend line that should we collapse could return us to $19k…
Lose the $19k psychological region and that could be another cliff free fall.
By itself I suspect that there will be great resistance at that price, but with the right / wrong macroeconomic environment… my next post title may allude to something to do with Niagara.

The US Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to make an address this morning.

In the ideal scenario, I'll exit both trades in profit as we tend to move bidirectionally on days when news is announced as markets react to the news reflexively and their immediate sentiment in response to the first take on the news. 
This is the first movement.

Shortly latter the significance of the words and their content will be digested and participants change their outlook on what the latent meanings behind the speech, becomes more apparent. 

Combined with those that attempt to secure their profits / wealth preservation and the downward force of the bear claw this usually results in a massive dump.

Since reopening yesterday's short prematurely expecting further downside and getting caught shorting a relief rally. I am caught nursing two positions that are in a loss.

My goal for today is to exit both positions without conceding a loss.
I am not prioritising profit maximisation.
Just loss prevention.

After closing one trade, I'll not aim to open another right away, to maintain the liquidation purgatory status.

Planning to instead put a (mark price execution) limit sell/buy order just before the liquidation price to launch me back into liq. purgatory if need be (likely that I'll need to recalibrate the limit order to a new liquidation price adjusted for the cost of executing the order) .
Thus, allowing me the liberty to cancel it and capitalise on any higher / lower trade opportunities in the opposing direction. 

Update: 09/09/20

Alright, that was another learning experience.
As you can see from the above screenshot I have closed both trades.

That pump this morning took my long into a hell of a lot of profit this morning.

I attempted to call the top at $21,147, ended up exiting the trade at $21,037.5.
Instantly, doubled up on my short position.

However, doubling up on that short only managed to advance my entry from $18,907 to $19,743.
My liquidation price went from ~$21,800 before after closing the long.
After doubling up on my short my liquidation price slid down to ~$21,305.
My unrealised P&L was somewhere around -$556 dollars on the short position. 
I no longer had enough capital at my disposal to put myself into liquidation purgatory should price threaten to liquidate me.

I then was left with two options…put a stop or chance liquidation.

Care to take a guess which option I selected?

Yes, the percentage gained was less than the percentage lost…
However, the position size was now double that of the long taken.

So, the end result was I got stopped out and lost twice as much as I had gained.
What always hurts after getting stopped is watching the price not hit your liquidation level and return potentially to your profit region. That has not occurred, but I will monitor continue to monitor it and see whether I will be "content with" or lament that stoppage. 

My trading balance is currently one third of where it was at the beginning of the week. (Still more than what it would have been had I chosen to cut my losses with a stop and not open a short).

But, I am not too phased by the loss.
Research costs, and innovation potentially unlocks unfathomable rewards.

Once I don't lose everything, I can always start again and "build back better".
#StopLossofLastResort

It's now 12:41 and between 11 and 11:30 I would have been liquidated had I not been stopped out.

Next time I double my portfolio, I'll partition my account.
An experimental ByBit account where I continue my experimentation with no SLs, and one in which I use stops (my 100x control group account).

Likely that this will be the last update I make until next week's.
As I will probably get to reading a textbook on forex scalping that I have wanted to start since last weekend.

Just sharing what I am doing

Draw your own charts

Banter On, Banter Strong!
✌️